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Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts that Bitcoin may continue to underperform the stock market as the current market cycle concludes. This outlook challenges the widespread expectation of a significant rotation from traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver into cryptocurrencies.
Key Takeaways
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Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests Bitcoin could continue to lose ground against the stock market.
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Expectations of a major shift from gold and silver into crypto may be premature.
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While gold and silver have reached new highs, Bitcoin's performance has lagged.
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Some analysts remain optimistic about a potential Bitcoin turnaround in the near future.
Bitcoin's Underperformance Concerns
Cowen expressed his view that Bitcoin's current price downtrend might be more persistent than many investors anticipate. He specifically noted that the strong belief in a "massive rotation" from precious metals like gold and silver into the crypto space could be misplaced. This comes at a time when gold and silver prices have recently surged to record highs, with silver, in particular, being projected by some institutions to climb further in the coming months due to factors like Chinese demand and a weakening US dollar.
Despite these bullish signals in traditional safe-haven assets, Cowen emphasized that a significant rotation into Bitcoin is "probably not going to happen" in the immediate short term. Many in the crypto community have been looking at the all-time highs in gold and silver as historical indicators that Bitcoin would eventually follow suit. However, Bitcoin's recent performance has been lackluster, trading down significantly over the past week, contributing to a prevailing sentiment of "extreme fear" among crypto investors, as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
Contrasting Optimistic Views
While Cowen's analysis paints a cautious picture, other market observers offer a more optimistic outlook. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, suggested that the crypto market might be on the verge of a turning point. He pointed to historical patterns where Bitcoin's bottoming out typically lags behind gold's relative strength by approximately 14 months, anticipating this shift could occur in February or March. Hundal believes that if historical trends hold true, the gold-Bitcoin dynamic could signal a potential bottom for BTC within the next 40 days. He explained that gold often leads during periods of macroeconomic stress, with Bitcoin following once risk appetite is restored. According to this model, the market could appear less fragile by the end of the current quarter.
Adding to the optimistic sentiment, Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, noted on January 19th that Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount relative to gold. He described these "asymmetric setups" as rare and suggested that if market flows reverse, the first quarter of 2026 could represent an inflection point for Bitcoin.
Sources
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Bitcoin ‘to keep bleeding against stock market’ as cycle wraps: Analyst — TradingView News, TradingView.
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Bitcoin ‘to keep bleeding against stock market’ as cycle wraps: Analyst, mx.advfn.com.
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